Zawahiri's call for fighting French and Spanish desperate attempt to rally support

24/09/2007

The call of al-Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman Zawahiri for attacks against the French and the Spanish came as the organisation is looking for justification for its unpopular war on Maghreb regimes.

Nazim Fethi and Said Jameh in Algiers contributed to this report – 24/09/07

[Getty Images] Aymen Zawahiri's call for attacks against the French and Spanish plays upon historical sensitivities in the Maghreb.

Analysts and Algerian citizens view a recent al-Qaeda video calling for jihad against the French and Spanish in the Maghreb as a desperate attempt to regain the support the organisation has lost among citizens and armed group alike. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb leader Abdelmalek Droukdel's appearance in the video coincided with his recent ousting by Algerian militant leaders, many of whom oppose al-Qaeda's strategy of targeting civilians.

In the video, which aired on September 20th, al-Qaeda's second in command, Ayman Zawahiri, called for the restoration of Andalusia and cleansing the "Maghreb of Rabat" of French and Spanish descendents. According to Mouloud Merchedi, an expert in Islamist groups, this call attempts to play on local sensitivities regarding France and Spain's history and influence in the region. Merchedi considered the video a mere sentimental call because the organisation is in search of approaches to justify its call to revolt against Maghreb governments. Merchedi said the effect will unlikely go beyond the ranks of active armed groups.

The release of Zawahiri's tape, which showed Droukdel swearing allegiance to fugitive al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, followed a September 13th meeting of Algerian militant leaders in which Droukdel was dismissed as leader of the group formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). The move is a blow to al-Qaeda and Droukdel, who unilaterally took the decision to affiliate the GSPC with al-Qaeda in January by changing the name of the organization and carrying out suicide attacks in order to gain al-Qaeda's acceptance.

GSPC leaders were reportedly unhappy with Droukdel's strategy of targeting the civilian population, particularly after the April 11th attack against the government palace in Algiers. Other suicide attacks targeting military barracks, particularly in Lakhdaria in July and Dellys in early August, failed to relieve the government's, and increasingly, the population's pressure on the group. The use of minors in suicide attacks earned the scorn of the Algerian population, further weakening Droukdel's standing. According to terrorism expert Hocine Meghlaoui, the recent suicide attacks came after the group suffered heavy losses in June and July, particularly in Kabylia and Tébessa.

Droukdel's peers also sharply criticised him for his lack of experience on the ground and the fact that he never took part in the attacks against security forces and preferred to send young recruits. The only operation he personally led, in July against a brigade of the gendarmerie in Yakouren in Kabylia, ended in abject failure. Approximately 15 of his troops were killed, and the army went on to launch a vast search operation in the area, killing over a hundred terrorists.

According to sociologist Mouloud Madoun, Droukdel’s fate had been sealed by his peers before Zawahiri's message, particularly after GSPC founder Hassan Hattab came into the picture. Hattab, who had until then stood back from events, reportedly took part in the September 13th Zbarbar meeting which led to Droukdel's ousting. Hattab left the Islamic Armed Group (GIA) in 1997 in protest of the collective killing of civilians. He recently expressed his readiness to sign up to President Bouteflika's policy of national reconciliation.

The terrorist group is officially without a chief and analysts are divided on its future direction.

Madoun believes Hattab could take the organisation's reins and work towards a peaceful settlement with the government, similar to that signed by the Islamic Salvation Army (AIS) in 1997. Many terrorist leaders were said to be considering surrender or at least renouncing military activity. Among those could be Mokhtar Belmokhtar who directed GSPC operations in Algeria's south.

A more pessimistic view sees some terrorist leaders continuing the fight against the government, although not necessarily under the al-Qaeda banner. Several regional chiefs have lined their pockets in recent years, through rackets against citizens and kidnappings targeting business leaders and entrepreneurs. They may not yet be ready to give up their lucrative operations.

Another view sees al-Qaeda fighting to keep Droukdel, or find a replacement who will have to orchestrate spectacular attacks to earn allegiance. Merchedi believes the appearance of Droukdel in the video message expresses al-Qaeda's desire to keep him, given the difficulty of finding a loyal replacement. According to Maghlaoui, last Friday's attack targeting French and Italian nationals in Lakhdaria constitutes a response to Zawahiri’s message, possibly by armed groups still faithful to Droukdel and al-Qaeda.

Whatever the direction, Algerians believe al-Qaeda is now operating in an increasingly hostile environment, particularly after reports emerged that the organisation uses teenagers and minors to carry out its suicide attacks.

Abdelkarim, an imam in the southern section of Algiers, described the recruiting of minors and adolescents as being against Islam and human values. He said Islam does not allow the incitement of young men to carry out acts of sabotage or to attack others. He called upon imams engaged in recruiting minors to return to their senses and to repent to God. "Those imams should reconsider their ideas, their ideology, and correct those ideas, which serve neither the religion nor the country," he told Magharebia.

Abdelkarim added that Islam has nothing to do with the acts and behaviours of those who commit crimes in the name of the religion, and that it also has nothing to do with Osama bin Laden's organisation.