Clash of conjectures could create surprise in Moroccan vote

06/09/2007

In the days leading up to Morocco's legislative elections, neither poll data nor public opinion offers a clear picture of what the next government will look like. Of equal interest is the cause of many Moroccans' reluctance to participate in the democratic process.

By Imane Belhaj for Magharebia in Casablanca - 09/06/07

[Getty Images] Former Deputy Interior Minister, Fouad Ali el Himma (left) is kissed by a supporter near Marrakesh as he campaigns as an independant candidate for the September 7th legislative elections.

Predicting what the ballot boxes may yield at the closing of the September 7th elections is near impossible. Opinions vary, and citizens are split between optimists with a bright outlook on the country’s future and pessimists who refuse to engage in politics at all. One Democratic Social Movement candidate said it is truly difficult to know the coming political map in any way. "The method of voting, the abundance of political parties and the multiplicity of election symbols, in addition to the similarity between the platforms of some parties … make it difficult to predict any result."

Basing his predictions upon opinion polls, Abdelkhalek Azizi, a labour inspector, said the next government "will be with a majority made up of the Justice and Development Party (PJD) in alliance with the independents and some from the Party of the Unified Socialist Left and the Labour Party… A formation such as this would allow for a new political experience with its new faces."

The independent candidacy of former Deputy Interior Minister Fouad Ali El Himma has given rise to major questions and generated unease for very important people in the political arena, sparking fears that the government’s hand will extend to the election process once again.

Journalist Azeddine Bendriss said, "The current majority is what will continue the venture, because there is a will to entrench this reality. As for the PJD, it will not go beyond improving its ranking in the list of votes received, in comparison with the 2002 elections. Meanwhile, the administrative parties will decline and the Parliament is expected to see more faces of Moroccan youth than ever before."

Political science professor Abou Abdelkader asserted that no one who follows the elections -- whether researchers or those practicing politics -- could say that these elections will bring a surprise or anything new, apart from the PJD increasing its percentage of votes received. Abdelkader said that even this remains only a slight possibility because another heavyweight Islamist, Abdelbarii Zemzami, is waging a campaign against the PJD.

Najib Bennara, a young teacher, said the political parties have not made any efforts to convince the voters of their desire for change, and the majority of them offer the same familiar faces. "Even in their efforts to present new candidates, they did not rely on democratic methods for selecting them. Rather, the selections were governed by patronage and loyalties, and this naturally makes it likely that the same parties will reach the dome of Parliament," said Bennara, meaning that the next government will be in its previous form, with some slight changes that will not greatly affect the present situation.

Abstention and the reasons behind it may be the newest development in Morocco's democratic experience. Whereas voter abstention in previous elections has sometimes been a result of parties calling for a boycott, abstention this year may be due to dissatisfaction with the list form of voting. Many Moroccans feel the new rules strip them of any role in determining the next parliamentarians. One Progress and Socialism Party candidate told the press that the authorised electoral vote and voting method will never allow for the emergence of a party majority.